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Economy · Markets · US · Business

Fed interest rate outlook

2 updates · 14 reports · last update Sat, 7 Nov

So far…

The Storyup to 5 Nov

Fed weighs another rate hike as inflation persists, oil rises

The Federal Reserve is weighing whether to raise interest rates again before the end of 2026, as inflation remains persistent and war-related oil price pressures build. In mid-October, Fed minutes pointed to another likely hike this year, and Governor Waller reversed his earlier outlook. New York Fed President Williams suggested a 2027 hike might not be needed, which put him at odds with traders. Economists and a Reuters poll expected the Fed to skip October and hike in December, pushing any cut further out. The Fed held rates at its October 28 meeting, just ahead of the midterm elections, and attention turned to December.

Fri, 6 NovUpdate 17 reports

Strong jobs report lifts yields; Daly says rate hike likely

A strong October jobs report sent Treasury yields higher, even as a deepening tech-stock rout shifted trader worries from inflation toward growth. San Francisco Fed President Daly said a rate hike was likely despite the "painful" market dive. Consumer sentiment improved in November, though concerns about an AI bubble emerged.

Sat, 7 NovUpdate 27 reports

October payrolls jump 165,000; unemployment falls to 4.1%

US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, far above forecasts, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Fed policymakers are considering a rate hike after the report. Views on a December hike conflict: odds were seen rising in some assessments and reversing as the dollar surged in others.

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